From Dreams to Doorways: Will Prabowo’s ‘People-First Housing’ Strategy Finally Solve Indonesia’s Housing Crisis?

Imagine living in a house where the roof leaks every time it rains. Or worse, imagine not having a home at all. Now ask yourself: what’s the point of chasing digital dreams and economic growth if millions still go to sleep without secure shelter? Isn’t “home” supposed to be the very first chapter in every success story?

Indonesia’s bold promise under President Prabowo Subianto to build 3 million homes during his administration isn’t just a political soundbite—it’s an attempt to rewrite the narrative of urban inequality, social exclusion, and economic disparity. This “People-First Housing” strategy is ambitious, and if done right, it could become a cornerstone for national development.

Let’s unpack this.

The Current Housing Landscape: A Crisis of Supply, Affordability, and Quality

Indonesia currently faces a housing backlog of over 15 millions (Ministry of Public Works and Housing, 2023). Every year, around 700,000–800,000 new households are formed, yet the housing supply remains significantly below this number. Urbanization, rising land prices, and fragmented policy implementation have only made the problem worse.

In Jakarta alone, The homeownership rate is only 56.6%. This isn’t just a housing problem—it’s a development bottleneck.

Why This Strategy is Groundbreaking: From Policy to People

What makes this strategy different? One word: intentionality.

Unlike past housing programs that were largely supply-driven or overly reliant on public-private partnerships with little oversight, the new “People-First” framework centers the citizen—especially low-income, informal workers—at its heart. This aligns directly with Amartya Sen’s capability approach, which emphasizes expanding people’s real freedoms and choices, not just income levels.

The program is also data-driven, utilizing integrated digital registries to target beneficiaries more accurately and reduce leakage.

Vision and Measurable Targets: The 3 Million Housing Pledge

The goal is crystal clear: 3 million livable, affordable, and sustainable homes every year. The Head of the Housing Task Force (Satgas Perumahan), Hashim Djojohadikusumo—who is also the younger brother of Prabowo—stated that the program to build 3 million houses per year is part of the effort to eradicate stunting.

Hashim emphasized that the target of building 3 million houses is set for a one-year period. Therefore, over the course of Prabowo’s five-year term, a total of 15 million houses will be built. Targets will be monitored quarterly using performance-based indicators on affordability, access to utilities, and housing quality.

The 3 Core Pillars of the Strategy

1. Accessibility and Affordability – Based on Keynesian economic theory, public spending is used as a stimulus. Subsidies, interest-free loans, and rent-to-own schemes are being funded through BI’s Macroprudential Inclusive Financing Program.
2. Integrated Urban Planning – Inspired by Jane Jacobs’ urban planning philosophy, the program promotes mixed-use neighborhoods, green spaces, and walkability rather than isolated housing blocks.
3. Community Empowerment – Adopting John Friedmann’s “Empowerment Planning”, local communities are involved in co-designing their homes, fostering social ownership.

The Economic and Social Ripple Effect

This isn’t just social policy—it’s economic stimulus. According to Bank Indonesia, the housing sector contributes 14.63% to GDP, involving 174 downstream industries from cement to furniture. The strategy is predicted to create over 6 million new jobs over five years.

Socially, it fulfils Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs, addressing the basic human need for shelter—the foundation for self-actualization, education, productivity, and health. Several studies show that access to stable housing improves school attendance by 23% and reduces household health expenditures by 40%.

But Wait—What Are the Risks and Criticisms?

Critics argue that while the vision is noble, the execution remains uncertain. Key risks include:

• Land acquisition disputes, especially in peri-urban zones.
• Risk of corruption, particularly in procurement and subsidies.
• Urban sprawl and environmental degradation due to weak spatial planning.
• Dependence on state-owned enterprises, which often lack agility.

Past programs (e.g., the 1 million homes initiative under Jokowi) suffered due to limited local government capacity, underwhelming private sector involvement, and insufficient infrastructure around new housing areas.

Lessons from Global Best Practices

We can draw from global success stories like:

• Singapore’s HDB model: 80% of citizens live in government-built flats with excellent urban amenities, funded through the Central Provident Fund.
• Mexico’s INFONAVIT program: Linked home financing with formal employment contributions, though they later faced criticism for pushing homes to undesirable outskirts—something Indonesia must avoid.

Conclusion

Will 3 million houses magically solve Indonesia’s entire housing crisis? Be real – the deficit is huge, and challenges like urbanization and inequality are relentless beasts. But.

This “People-First” strategy matters because it fundamentally reframes housing as a right and an investment in human capital, backed by serious economic logic and institutional heft (BI’s involvement is huge). It’s the most comprehensive, ambitious, and theoretically grounded push Indonesia has seen. If it navigates the execution minefield – prioritizing transparency, community integration, land justice, and quality control – it could be transformative. It won’t be perfect, but it signals a crucial shift: housing isn’t just about stacking bricks; it’s about building dignity, security, and a foundation for millions to thrive. That’s the ultimate people-first flex. Now, let’s see if they can deliver.